分类： 地球科学 >> 空间物理学 提交时间： 2016-05-12
摘要： Turbulence is a chaotic flow regime filled by irregular flows. The dissipation of turbulence is a fundamental problem in the realm of physics. Theoretically, dissipation ultimately cannot be achieved without collisions, and so how turbulent kinetic energy is dissipated in the nearly collisionless solar wind is a challenging problem. Wave particle interactions and magnetic reconnection (MR) are two possible dissipation mechanisms, but which mechanism dominates is still a controversial topic. Here we analyze the dissipation region scaling around a solar wind MR region. We find that the MR region shows unique multifractal scaling in the dissipation range, while the ambient solar wind turbulence reveals a monofractal dissipation process for most of the time. These results provide the first observational evidences for intermittent multifractal dissipation region scaling around a MR site, and they also have significant implications for the fundamental energy dissipation process.
分类： 地球科学 >> 空间物理学 提交时间： 2016-05-12
摘要： Predicting the arrival times of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their related waves at Earth is an important aspect of space weather forecasting. The Shock Propagation Model (SPM) and its updated version (SPM2), which use the initial parameters of solar flare-Type II burst events as input, have been developed to predict the shock arrival time. This paper continues to investigate the influence of solar disturbances and their associated CMEs on the corresponding interplanetary (IP) shock's arrival at Earth. It has been found that IP shocks associated with wider CMEs have a greater probability of reaching the Earth, and the CME speed obtained from coronagraph observations can be supplementary to the initial shock speed computed from Type II radio bursts when predicting the shock's arrival time. Therefore, the third version of the model, i.e., SPM3, has been developed based on these findings. The new version combines the characteristics of solar flare-Type II events with the initial parameters of the accompanying CMEs to provide the prediction of the associated IP shock's arrival at Earth. The prediction test for 498 events of Solar Cycle 23 reveals that the prediction success rate of SPM3 is 70%-71%, which is apparently higher than that of the previous SPM2 model (61%-63%). The transit time prediction error of SPM3 for the Earth-encountered shocks is within 9 hr (mean-absolute). Comparisons between SPM3 and other similar models also demonstrate that SPM3 has the highest success rate and best prediction performance.
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